Does QE2 doom the USD?

On its own, probably not. But it certainly doesn't help the beleaguered greenback, which is primarily suffering from the protracted weakness in the US economy contrasted with relative strength in other major economies, especially Asian regional and other emerging markets. The price action in recent weeks highlights our view that it's relative growth prospects that are driving central bank policy expectations, which in turn are driving key currencies. As one indication, the USD index at 76.55 is only slightly lower than the 76.70 level at the time of the Fed announcement, with EUR/USD similarly nearly unchanged. Yes, the USD weakened between the Fed's decision and Friday's NFP report, but that's the point: the USD recovered after Oct. jobs surprised to the upside, suggesting improving US growth prospects. GBP/USD is only about 100 points higher than pre-Fed levels, but this stems more from the surprising resilience in 3Q UK GDP reported 2 weeks ago, which led the BOE to refrain from its own QE2 this past week. AUD and NZD have similarly outperformed both the USD and other major currencies after surprising strength in NZ 3Q employment and an unexpected rate hike from the RBA, again due to strong growth prospects and limited spare capacity.

So we hesitate to conclude that QE2 in and of itself will lead to further USD weakness. More important will be the evolution of incoming US data, and to the extent it improves, the USD has the potential to stabilize. The better than expected Oct. jobs report, while far from cause for exuberance, does hold out the prospect for further improvement in consumer confidence, and with it US consumption. Now that QE2 is out of the way, other major currencies are at risk of coming under the microscope, especially if incoming data begins to disappoint. In particular, we think EUR and GBP strength against the USD is especially vulnerable to data setbacks and the strong likelihood of slower growth in the months ahead. EUR is also vulnerable to renewed peripheral stressors (see below). On the technical side, we would note a daily bearish engulfing candlestick in EUR/USD on Friday, potentially suggesting a reversal lower, and we would highlight the daily Ichimoku Tenkan and Kijun lines at 1.4008 and 1.3951 as a critical support zone that must hold for the EUR/USD to strengthen further. The USD index also has long-term trendline support at 75.60/65 as another indicator of whether USD weakness is extending. GBP/USD has long-term trendline resistance at 1.6300/10, above which we would expect gains to extend. AUD, NZD, and CAD (to a lesser extent) seem most likely to continue to outperform (see below), not just against the USD, but also EUR, GBP and JPY. Should the USD recover more quickly than expected, rapid gains in Gold, Silver and crude oil are at risk of a sharp sell-off. We go into next week cautiously optimistic for a USD recovery overall.