The global rebound is “fragile” and shocks could push the world toward another recession, according to Government of Singapore Investment Corp., manager of more than US$100 billion ($137 billion) of the nation’s foreign reserves.
Risks to the global recovery have increased due to Europe’s debt turmoil, continued deleveraging in the US and protectionist pressures, Tony Tan, deputy chairman of GIC, said in a speech in Singapore today. The fund is ranked the world’s sixth-largest state investment company by Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute in California.
“The economic recovery, while real, is fragile and there is a risk that negative shocks could push the global economy towards a recession sooner than expected,” Tan said. “The strong rebound in global industrial production is peaking while monetary and fiscal policies, particularly in the larger emerging economies, are being normalised.” Policy makers in most developed economies have refrained from raising interest rates from record lows amid concern the global recovery will falter. The International Monetary Fund this month said financial-market turmoil has increased the risks to the rebound, and Moody’s Investors Service lowered its credit ratings on Portugal and Ireland.
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