Thursday, September 29, 2011
金砖四国 (BRIC) 之后.
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Friday, July 15, 2011
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
中国错失抑通胀良机
Cyber Attack
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Year 2012
Some economists believe that 2012 is going to be a recession year. The UK, Hong Kong, China are already seeing a decline in property sales and house prices have come down. The Bank will not making profit anymore soon. Inflation is high. people are suffering now. Politicians are running out of ideas. Companies are try to list in the market to accumulate more cash. Then, what should you do now?
Saturday, June 11, 2011
罗杰斯正在作空一家美国大型银行
Friday, June 10, 2011
Malaysia's palm oil stocks at 16-month high
Thursday, June 9, 2011
FCPO Major Break Down Today!
中国是个新的“互联网泡沫”
韦奕礼在卸任前一天接受采访时说,每个人都想从中国分得一杯羹。他说,所以,投资者在没有问问常规性的基本面问题的情况下,就争相买进中国公司股票。
韦奕礼发表上述言论正值某些海外上市中国企业的会计实务面临越来越严格的监督,以及有指控称其存在欺诈行为之际。美国证券交易委员会(SEC)已经成立了一个特别小组,以调查在纽约上市的多家中国企业的问题。
总部位于香港、在多伦多上市的植树公司嘉汉林业国际有限公司(Sino-Forest Corp.)近几天股价暴跌,此前一位卖空者公布研究报告称该公司的会计实务有问题。嘉汉林业一直说研究报告不准确,并且说正在就指控进行调查。
今年早些时候,在香港上市的中国森林控股有限公司(China Forestry Holdings Ltd.)的股票被停牌,此前该公司管理团队成员被拘捕或失踪。
质疑中国上市公司的会计实务和公司治理在香港尤其重要。在香港,中国相关证券占了当地股市交易量的70%以上。
韦奕礼说,令海外上市中国公司(包括在香港上市的公司)的问题更加严重的是,监管机构要依靠第三方调查人员来获取有关一家公司的更多信息。理论上讲,这个问题同样存在于在香港上市的、借中国经济增长之风的巴西和俄罗斯等其他新兴市场公司。
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
华尔街最大的秘密
许多经纪商、理财顾问和销售员都会对你说,只有将所有这些基金按适当比例混合持有,你才能构建出合理的投资组合,使其回报与你的“风险承受能力”做到完美匹配。
一派胡言。
在你投入真金白银前,不妨听听鲍勃•豪根(Bob Haugen)的高见。
曾担任金融学教授的他花费了半生时间来研究股票市场。他撰写过众多书籍和论文,还与人合写了Case Closed这篇非凡的分析文章。
他在文中不厌其烦地详细分析了在1963年至2007年近半个世纪时间内那些表现最好(以及表现最差)股票的特征。
他发现了什么?
大多数所谓“时尚”股票都不值得投资。而那种要获得更多回报就得承受更大“风险”的说法则是彻头彻尾的谎言。
豪根说,股票市场其实有一个巨大秘密。
他说,几十年来,“那些有着最高风险的股票创造了最低的回报,而那些有着最低风险的股票则创造了最高的回报。”换句话说,股票的风险与回报应该成反比才对......从他对45年间股市表现的研究看,市场对风险的回报一向是为负的。
你不会因为自己承受风险而获得回报,却会因选择不承受风险而获得回报。
所有那些迷人而性感的“增长型”股票,所有那些你在不顾一切追求高回报过程中承受的额外波动性,都不是什么好东西。
如果你当初把资金投入那些似乎只能让你保本微利的低风险“价值型”股票,你的投资收益其实会好得多。
在时间检验中胜出的是那些综合考虑每股净资产值、收益、现金流和派息等因素后价格显得低廉的股票。发行这些股票的公司目前就有数额巨大且不断增长的利润,这些股票不属于那些将幸福一股脑寄希望于未来10年的公司。它们还常常能从股市近期的增长动力中获益。
虽然豪根说,很难找到堪称“完美”的个股,但你依然能够找到表现良好的股票来构建投资组合。
投资价值型股票可以获得良好回报。豪根和Case Closed一文的另一位作者纳丁•贝克(Nardin Baker)写道:有强大证据显示,与所有那些有关预期回报的复杂理论相比,简单的直觉更为靠谱。
简单的直觉事实上会让你更轻松地赚更多的钱。即使是在计算进交易成本后,凭直觉进行投资的策略也能奏效。
这一发现也并非只适用于美国。豪根还研究了英国、法国、德国和日本股市的历史数据。
结果是一样的。波动性较低的股票带来了较高的回报。简直是免费午餐嘛。
很多专业投资者已经知道这一点,但有太多的人不知道。而知道的人当中,又有很多人不断忘记,一次又一次地急着追捧那些昂贵的“潜力股”。最近的情况就是这样。
华尔街也不会过于广泛地向公众散播这种宝贵的信息。跟客户解释起来是很困难的。而且,如果客户知道有一个以更低风险获取更高回报的简便方法,他们还需要基金经理干吗呢?
不只豪根一人做出了这样的分析。反向投资者多年来强调的数据显示,在任何一个较长时间段内,“价值型”股票总能跑赢“增长型”股票。
投资公司GMO的知名策略师蒙迪埃(James Montier)曾经证明,日本过去20年的大熊市完全是缘于“魅力”股的下跌。他发现,这期间如果你持有日本的价值股,同时做空这些魅力股,你实际上会赚到钱。
这种免费午餐证明,市场远远谈不上完全“有效”。豪根说,这个事实对有效市场假说堪称致命一击。
就 连一些狂热崇拜有效市场假说的人也都被迫部分承认了这类观点。他们几十年来坚持认为,要获得更高回报,你就得承受更大波动或曰“风险”。回过头来看数据 时,他们才意识到实际情况并不全是这样。他们承认,小公司的表现比大公司好,价值型股票的表现比增长型股票好──尽管它们含有的风险更低。
哦,原来就是这样有效啊。
这对今天的你来说意味着什么?
碰 巧,过去两年股市反弹期间增长型股票出现了大幅上涨。于是投资者再次任由自己幻想未来的辉煌,而不是紧盯今天的利润。FactSet的数据显示,从 2009年年初开始,增长型股票的表现比价值型股票好20%。这令人难以置信。小盘增长型股票表现最好。所有股票中最安全的大盘价值股表现最差。
如果历史可为镜鉴,这种现象将会是一时的,它对聪明的长线投资者来说是一次机会。显而易见的结论是,现在就该抛售增长型股票、买入价值股或价值股基金。虽然我对处于目前水平的整个股市持谨慎态度,但如果要买股票的话,我会买进一只低估值的大盘价值股基金。
Brett Arends
Sorry, No QE3 !!
Republican lawmakers are "playing with fire" by contemplating even a brief debt default as a means to force deeper government spending cuts, an adviser to China's central bank said.
"I think there is a risk that the U.S. debt default may happen," Li told reporters on the sidelines of a forum in Beijing. "The result will be very serious and I really hope that they would stop playing with fire."
China is the largest foreign creditor to the United States, holding more than $1 trillion in Treasury debt as of March, U.S. data shows, so its concerns carry considerable weight in Washington.
"I really worry about the risks of a U.S. debt default, which I think may lead to a decline in the dollar's value," Li said.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Greek problems get worse before they get better?
The second wave of the Greek debt crisis seems to be focused on the technicalities of default. This time last year the EU authorities together with the ECB and the IMF were trying to find a stop-gap solution to Greek financial crisis, now the hard work begins as the EU authorities (in particular the ECB) try to wean the Greek financial system off temporary liquidity support.
To complicate matters, Greece isn’t playing ball. Its tax collection record is still dismal and its deficit cutting hasn’t happened fast enough to convince the EU authorities to give them more money. German officials have spoken out about Greece’s short falls and it was slapped on the wrist by the IMF last week. This pushed Athens to announce a wave of privatizations of state assets, but that wasn’t enough to stop Fitch, the credit rating agency, from cutting its long-term credit rating to B+. Fitch justified its actions by saying that the risk of default had dramatically increased and that any re-profiling of debt is another form of default.
This caused a flurry of risk aversion in the markets; however this is likely to be short-lived. The market has come to expect a second bailout/ default from Greece. What is much more troublesome is the ECB’s recent rhetoric. It is steadfastly against a debt restructuring for any member states, which is what the EU authorities are pushing for. The reason for this is twofold: firstly, it believes that a default would cause contagion to other more systemically important nations in the Eurozone like Spain. Secondly, since last year the ECB has been accepting lower grade collateral in return for its loans, which means it is sitting on billions of peripheral debt.
ECB member Jens Weidman said that the Bank may no longer accept Greek bonds as collateral if there is an arranged default for Athens. This would in essence shut-off Greek banks from the capital markets, causing them to collapse and potentially triggering a global financial crisis, resulting in the 200 pip drop in EURUSD at the end of this past week.
The ECB is talking tough and has a right to voice its concerns, but we believe it will be side-lined and the EU authorities will ultimately determine the solution to the debt crisis. The ECB’s mandate is to promote financial market stability – unleashing chaos into the markets by effectively forcing Greece into bankruptcy would be a clear violation of this mandate.
The bad news for euro bulls is that the Greek situation is likely to get worse; an IMF audit into how well it is adhering to the conditions of its first bailout is due to be released next month, which has the potential to dent investor sentiment further.
Friday, May 20, 2011
End of QE2 to hurt stocks, bonds.
Investors and traders approach the end of QE2 with a sense of trepidation, worried that with the Fed no longer supporting the market, investments that have been profitable for the last nine months will plummet and rattle confidence in the shaky economic recovery.
The survey showed investors overwhelmingly thought government bonds would suffer from the Fed's exit, with 40 of 64 respondents saying the end of quantitative easing would drive up yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds.
Concerns about the European debt crisis, the Chinese economic slowdown and the struggling U.S. jobs market, already gnawing away at investor confidence, may now take a big bite out of sentiment across a range of markets.http://www.reuters.com
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Osama Bin Laden's death
False alarms and blood pressure rise over fear of Al-Qaeda retaliation
Saturday, May 7, 2011
Friday, April 22, 2011
We Have Inflation Now
Thursday, April 21, 2011
TSH RESOURCES BHD (9059.KL )
Output from TSH’s plantations in Indonesia is picking up pace.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Mulpha International Bhd - The Next Jewel
Mulpha International Bhd (3905.KL) focus is on property development and investment, infrastructure and civil construction with operations and investments in Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong and Australia.
The Group's real estate investments in Malaysia are located in several strategic development areas, includes the prestigious gated resort development of Leisure Farm Resort in Gelang Patah within the South Johor Economic Region (SJER) and Iskandar Malaysia (IM) and Bukit Punchor Industrial Park in Nibong Tebal, Seberang Prai within the Northern Corridor Economic Region (NCER).
Over the years, Mulpha has leveraged on its expertise abroad to become Malaysia's largest real estate investor and developer in Australia, owning world-class assets that include Sanctuary Cove and Hyatt Regency Sanctuary Cove in Queensland, InterContinental Sydney, Norwest Business Park Sydney, The Hotel School Sydney, Bimbadgen Estate in New South Wales' Hunter Valley and the world-renowned and award-winning Hayman Great Barrier Reef.
The Market After Sarawak State Election
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Asean Exchanges
ASEAN Exchanges is a collaboration of the seven exchanges from Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam to promote the growth of the ASEAN capital market by bringing more ASEAN investment opportunities to more people.
This will be accomplished by driving cross border collaboration, streaming access to ASEAN, creating ASEAN centric products and implementing targeted promotional initiatives.
ASEAN Exchanges will provide an easily identifiable reference for investors in the form of the ASEAN Stars.
ASEAN Stars will comprise 210 ASEAN blue-chip stocks representing the most exciting 30 companies of each member exchange as ranked by investability in terms of market capitalization and liquidity.
Friday, April 8, 2011
Friday, March 18, 2011
UN Approves Military Action to Protect Civilians From Qaddafi
The resolution, approved yesterday 10-0 with five abstentions, allows the U.S., the U.K., France and Arab nations to “take all necessary measures” to protect civilians. It excludes “a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory,”
Qaddafi has threatened to “destroy” the opposition movement and take Benghazi, a city of 1 million people and the center of the uprising against his four-decade rule. He said yesterday he would show “no mercy” to “traitors” who don’t surrender.
The UN vote drew cheers and celebratory gunfire from hundreds of anti-Qaddafi Libyans gathered in Benghazi. Brazil, China, Germany, India and Russia abstained from voting in New York.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Japan quake may cause double dip
"We are concerned of the medium to long term impact of this earthquake. But the efforts by the Bank of Japan to pump in US$183 billion into the financial system may stem any major sell down in the capital markets and reassures investors," he said. He also said that the CONSTRUCTION industry in Japan is set to be a major gainer after this disaster as the government there starts rebuilding the cities affected by the quake and tsunami.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Friday, February 25, 2011
BOB PRECHTER: We're Still In A Massive Bear Market And Stocks Will Crash To New Lows
Investors have gotten wildly bullish of late, as the bull market that started in early 2009 keeps driving stocks to new highs.
But the pigs are about to get slaughtered, says Bob Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International and editor of the Elliott Wave Theorist.
Prechter still thinks the new bull market is just a cyclical "retracement" of some of the bear market losses that we've had since the market crashed in 2008. Prechter expected this retracement to drive stocks 50% above the market lows, but stocks have since soared 30% higher than than he expected.
So when the day of reckoning comes, Prechter thinks, it will be even more startling. And Prechter still thinks that stocks will eventually crash to new bear-market lows (read: below 6,800 on the DOW).
What makes Prechter think this day of reckoning may come sooner rather than later?
Sentiment indicators and other technical analysis.
Investor bullishness has now gotten so extreme, Prechter says, that it has exceeded the levels in 2008 before the market crashed. Investors could still get even more bullish, of course, but eventually they'll pay for this optimism.
And Prechter's not just bearish on stocks: He thinks oil, silver, and other commodities are absurdly overvalued, too. The only thing he's bullish on is the dollar.
When will that be?
Stay tuned...
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Petra Perdana(7108.KL) banks on deep-water finds
Deep-water oil wells generally require bigger support vessels with more brake horse power (bhp), such as those owned by Petra Perdana.
Petra Perdana has a mixed fleet of 25 vessels, of which 14 are larger vessels above 9,000bhp, which would make them ideal for Petronas’ new oil finds in Sarawak.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Genting’s Singapore casino Q4 profits lags Marina Bay Sands
Target Price Y2011 : S$2.50
Saturday, February 19, 2011
U.S. investors fear volatility but remain steadfast
NEW YORK: Investors are worried the U.S. stock market has rallied for six months without significant correction but they're not ready to call it quits, according to a Reuters report on Friday, Feb 18.
The CBOE Volatility Index VIX, Wall Street's so-called "fear gauge", was on track to end the week about 5 percent higher even as the S&P 500 index rose to twice its value from just two years ago. The index is usually inversely correlated to the S&P and a rise in the VIX typically means a drop in the stock market.
"There is definitely high anxiety because everyday it looks like the market is at the top and it's going to have to correct," said James Dailey, portfolio manger of TEAM Asset Strategy Funds in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
"Are we due for a pullback? Yes. When? that's the big question. Money just keeps flowing into equities."
The VIX's overall level of 16.51 is still historically low but substantially higher than recent volatility. That suggests investors see more share gyrations in the weeks ahead.
BIGGER CORRECTION?
"The 3-5 percent correction that the market had anticipated might now turn into a 5-10 percent one."
Sunday, February 13, 2011
A Change for Delta Petroleum
Troubled oil company Delta Petroleum (Nasdaq: DPTR) is now walking the proverbial tightrope after it recently began trading on Nasdaq’s Capital Market rather than the exchange’s Global Market. The company’s recent relisting at the hands of Nasdaq means that shareholders in Delta may be witnessing just the first of several punitive actions against the company. Like its name, Delta is at a clear crossroads.
In English, please
Nasdaq’s relisting means that the company’s outstanding shares have been transferred from the big swimming pool with the slides and diving boards down to the baby pool, where swimmers need to have water-wings and their mother’s undivided attention in order to dip their toes in. This is a bad thing.
As of Feb. 1, the company received an additional 180 days from Nasdaq to regain compliance in order to requalify for play in the deep end. In the short term, this is a good thing of course. But, ultimately, one can’t argue this is anything other than yet another major set-back for the company.
Those are the rules
According to Nasdaq listing rules, the minimum price of a company’s common stock cannot be less than $1.00 per share for 30 consecutive business days. Delta’s shares are currently trading at $0.74. Of course, it wouldn’t take much for a volatile company like this one to muster a rally (especially considering the extremely volatile nature of energy prices), but for the time being, the company will have to operate per normal under the looming threat of a complete de-listing. This is something that should concern investors.
Delta’s underperformance is certainly not a recent phenomenon, either. Share prices have steadily declined from $4.67 in February 2009 to its current status well below a dollar.
A last-ditch effort
Delta had hoped to catalyze a turnaround after selling some of its working assets and being aided by a simultaneous increase in gas prices, but bad days didn’t end there. Hitting dry wells and surviving on cash tapped through the equity markets is no way to run an oil company. No doubt, they have put in a lot of effort to delve into unproven areas, but that strategy clearly continues to backfire. Without a proper asset base from which they can generate revenue, it wouldn’t make sense to keep digging with investors’ hard-earned money.
Of course, Delta had its days under the sun, and it would be nice to see a turnaround. There have been other reasonably similar success stories like Talisman Energy (NYSE: TLM), but it would be wise to take a closer look at the underlying business fundamentals of companies like Delta that are riding on such a volatile lifeline. Leaving everything to fate sounds pretty un-Foolish, especially in this sink-or-swim sector.
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Stocks fall modestly as China lifts rates
In a widely expected move, the People's Bank of China announced Tuesday on its website that the benchmark 1-year deposit rate would rise by a quarter percentage point to 3 percent and the 1-year lending rate would increase by the same amount to 6.06 percent.
"The announcement may cause jitters about the impact tightening will have on Chinese growth but these should not be overplayed," said Mark Williams, senior China economist at Capital Economics. "The latest increases are in line with the gradual policy tightening that has been underway over the last few months and will not do much to slow growth."
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Genting’s Resorts World Sentosa signs $4.2b of loans
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Delta Petroleum Corporation Announces Its Transfer to The NASDAQ Capital Market
The transfer of Delta's common stock to the NASDAQ Capital Market from The NASDAQ Global Market should not have any effect on a shareholder's ability to buy or sell its shares of Delta.
In transferring to the Capital Market, it is expected that Delta will have an additional 180 days to regain compliance with NASDAQ's requirement that its minimum bid price be at least $1.00.
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Bob Doll: Ten predictions for 2011
1. US growth accelerates as US real GDP reaches a new all time high
2. The US economy creates two to three million jobs in 2011 as unemployment falls to 9%
3. US stocks experience a third year of double-digit percentage returns for the first time in over a decade as earnings reach a new all time high
4. Stocks outperform bonds and cash
5. The US stock market outperforms the MSCI World Index
6. The US, Germany and Brazil outperform Japan, Spain and China
7. Commodities and emerging market currencies outperform a basket of the US dollar, euro and yen
8. Strong balance sheets and free cash flow lead to significant increases in dividends, share buybacks, mergers and acquisitions and business reinvestment
9. Investor flows move from bond funds to equity funds
10. The 2012 US presidential campaign sees a plethora of Republican candidates while President Barack Obama continues to move to the centre
S&P Japan move
Standard & Poor's surprised markets by downgrading Japan's long-term sovereign debt one notch from AA to AA minus, citing the country's ballooning deficit, which it said will further reduce Tokyo's already restricted fiscal flexibility.
The move will have a limited impact on Japan's ability to raise money on financial markets but it raised a red flag with investors about other leading countries' fiscal imbalances.
"It is not a good sign.... A major economy like Japan being cut is not going to go down very well," said Mark Priest, senior equities trader at ETX Capital